The NBP's main core inflation indicator, CPI ex-food/fuel/energy, held at 2.4% y/y in June, according to data published Wed. by the NBP. The print was below the 2.5% consensus expectation but above our 2.3% forecast. Two of the other three other core inflation indicators tracked by the NBP decelerated and the other also remained flat. The 15% trimmed mean indicator, probably the second most influential for the Monetary Policy Council, eased to 3.8% y/y from 4.0% the previous month. The indicator stripping out regulated prices sank to 4.0% y/y from 4.8% the previous month.

Overall, the June core inflation print will not have a material monetary policy impact, though the fact further gains have been not materialised will be welcomed. The CPI inflation slowdown to 4.2% y/y in June from 5.0% in May and the fact core inflation didn't move points to the fact core inflationary pressures have remained unchanged and supply factors are doing most of the moving around in terms of recent price changes. But the MPC doesn't next decide rates until early September, meaning it will have a newer batch of data. That fact downplays the importance of the data. That said, the latest figures point rather to a maintenance of rates than a hike, particularly with CPI inflation slowing amidst a soft economic patch.