CEEMarketWatch Daily Politics
Aug 24, 2011
Political news and analyses from Central&Eastern Europe, written by CEEMarkewatch. Visit www.ceemarketwatch.com for latest updates.
Central And Eastern Europe contents
Czech Republic
VV considers issue around Ladislav Batora closed
TOP 09 assures it will not leave government
Serbia
Progress in talks with Kosovo is mandatory condition for EU candidate status
Bosnia-Herzegovina
EC's progress report on BiH to be negative
Estonia
Pressure for resignation of defence minister Laar builds up
Middle East and North Africa contents
Israel
FinMin cools down protesters demands
Tunisia
Political party count increases to 105
Sub-Saharan Africa contents
Angola
Gaddafi reportedly offered asylum in country
Botswana
Ruling BDP Secretary General resigns
Zambia
President Banda likely to retain power - survey
Czech Republic 
VV considers issue around Ladislav Batora closed 
Aug 23, 2011 12:11 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

The smallest government ally VV considers the issue around senior education ministry official Ladislav Batora closed with the apology offered to TOP 09 by VV Education Minister Josef Dobes and the fact that he publicly distanced himself from the words of Batora, the VV main board said in a statement today. VV Vice President and Deputy PM Carolina Peake said the party believes that the coalition partners should not address the issue any more. However, the statement practically means that the VV refused to press Dobes to dismiss Batora in contrast to the request by the TOP 09, which might lead to new turbulence in the Czech government. Earlier VV accused TOP 09 of using the case as pretext to delay adoption of stricter taxation on gambling, as proposed by the VV.

Last week Batora called TOP 09 leader Karel Schwarzenberg "a lame old duck" and TOP 09 vowed to boycott cabinet meetings until Batora resigns or is dismissed. Earlier today TOP 09 said it will not jeopardize the existence of the coalition over the issue, still the statement was made before the VV's position was known. Meanwhile, PM Petr Necas said Batora's case could not be a reason to break up the government and urged both sides to avoid deepening the ongoing conflict.

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TOP 09 assures it will not leave government 
Aug 23, 2011 11:26 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

Junior government partner TOP 09 assured it will not leave the ruling coalition. According to a resolution of TOP 09 main board today TOP 09 feels bound by the coalition agreement and certainly does not intend to leave the government. Earlier today TOP 09 leader Karel Schwarzenberg admitted this possibility but still the party management decided not to strain coalition relations further over the issue in view of the pressing fiscal reform agenda. Nevertheless, the party confirmed that it would send at the cabinet meetings only deputy ministers as long as long as Ladislav Batora, a controversial official at the education ministry keeps his job. Last week TOP 09 ministers walked out of the cabinet session demanding the dismissal of Batora after he publicly offended TOP 09 chairman and foreign minister Karel Schwarzenberg. However, Education Minister Josef Dobes refused to sack Batora, despite his numerous public scandals, his dubious past and close links with far right and extremist organisations.

PM Petr Necas warned today the issue of Batora's departure cannot be a reason to question the existence of government and should not serve as a pretext for leaving the coalition. He urged coalition partners to find solution. He recalled Batora was appointed in the education ministry a year ago and that TOP 09 did not have reservations at the time. Still, TOP 09 deputy chairman Miroslav Kalosuek said the ball is now in the hands of the VV that should provee it does not tolerate extremism. The VV main board is due to discuss the issue today, but it is expected to decide for dismissal of Batora so that to avoid another government crisis this year.

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Serbia 
Progress in talks with Kosovo is mandatory condition for EU candidate status 
Aug 24, 2011 05:19 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

The Serbian government needs to achieve progress in the bilateral EU-brokered talks with Kosovo in order to be granted an EU candidate status, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at a press conference after a meeting with President Boris Tadic on Tuesday. This is part of the requirement for good relations with neighbouring countries, Merkel added. The EU will also look for institutional reforms in Serbia before deciding on the candidate status, Merkel said. The government also needs to achieve progress in the joint work with EULEX and to abolish the dual structures in Northern Kosovo, the German Chancellor said.

Tadic confirmed that Serbia has already fulfilled all the requirements for candidate status and that the country will continue to solve conflicts in the region through dialogue. He insisted that Serbia should be granted a starting date for the accession talks, since if it is delayed, this could cause a revision of the EU aspirations of the country. Serbia hopes to receive and EU candidate status by the end of this year and start membership negotiations in 2012.

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Bosnia-Herzegovina 
EC's progress report on BiH to be negative 
Aug 24, 2011 05:17 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

The EC will give a negative assessment of BiH progress in its upcoming annual report, head of BiH European Integration Directorate, Nevenka Savic, said. She reiterated that political disagreements are the biggest hurdle in the country's EU integration process. BiH signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the Bloc in 2008 but made virtually no progress ever since. The integration process has been stalled over protracted government formation at state level. Earlier this month acting Head of the EU Delegation to BiH, Renzo Daviddi, warned that BiH could lose EUR 96mn because BiH authorities have failed to agree on projects that would be funded under IPA pre-accession programme for 2011.

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Estonia 
Pressure for resignation of defence minister Laar builds up 
Aug 24, 2011 05:32 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

Pressure is building up for the resignation of defence minister Mart Laar after comments he made for the Estonian student association. Laar said "I guarantee that those who attack the Estonian state will be shot down", which provoked a negative reaction by the public and the opposition. Laar refused to consider a resignation, saying that the statement was taken out of context. PM Ansip also defended the minister and leader of the junior coalition partner IRL, saying that Laar's words should not be taken literally. At the same time, he noted that the statement can be seen from different angles and cabinet membrs should have this in mind and weigh their words carefully at all times. Former PM Laar is among the most influential politicians in the country and the development of the scandal is worth watching, though we do not think it will affect significantly public opinion and relations within the ruling coalition.

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Israel 
FinMin cools down protesters demands 
Aug 24, 2011 04:36 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

FinMin Steinitz said on Tuesday to Reshet Bet radio the budget framework must not be breached, in response to the demands by the social protesters. He said that the Western world was undergoing a second economic crisis that is liable to affect Israel. Steinitz outlined as major challenges to authorities encouraging exports, investment, and jobs, and preventing mass unemployment. Steinitz spoke about the need to stimulate economic growth and preserve existing growth engines in order to overcome the second wave of the crisis. Steinitz avoided any direct reference to the demands for social justice and a different distribution of resources made by protesters. Social protests maintain a low profile due to the ongoing rocket attacks from the Gaza on South of Israel. Nevertheless, the demonstrators are still calling for a million-person march in 50 cities across the country on Sept 3. 

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Tunisia 
Political party count increases to 105 
Aug 23, 2011 07:16 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

Tunisia's authorities have licensed three new parties, bringing the number of political entities in Tunisia to 105, the TAP news agency reported. The authorised parties are the Tunisian Party led by Meriem Mnaouar, The Voice of the Tunisian and Al Massar Attounoussi. There were only eight authorised political parties before the January Revolution that ousted President Ben Ali from power. The first election since the uprising will be held on Oct 23. The vote is for a constituent assembly that will draft a constitution and complete the road to a democracy.

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Angola 
Gaddafi reportedly offered asylum in country 
Aug 23, 2011 09:45 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi may be heading for Angola, which along with Zimbabwe has been reported to have offered him asylum, according to Al Jazeera news. The reports comes as Libyan rebel forces have entered the country’s capital and are said to be close to the compound of Gaddafi, with Al Jazeera reporting further that negotiations between Gaddafi and the two aforementioned countries were now in progress that could potentially pave the way for the Libyan leader to move to one of these countries. No official comment has been made by the Angolan government, although the move, should it occur, is likely to draw staunch criticism from key western trading partners especially the US.

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Botswana 
Ruling BDP Secretary General resigns 
Aug 23, 2011 09:06 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

President Ian Khama ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) suffered a big blow following the resignation of its Secretary General and legislator, Kentse Rammidi. Although he has said he will now become an independent legislator, there is speculation that he might join the BDP breakaway party, the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD). He has been quoted by Mmegi newspaper saying that he resigned from the BDP as it is no longer a democratic party and is now made up of people who are self centered. The resignation of Kentse was not expected and has surprised many people. There is speculation that four more BDP legislators will tender their resignation from the BDP soon. Some people believe that the resignation of legislators from the ruling BDP shows the growing discontent within the party over President Khama autocratic style of leadership. Some people accuse Khama, a former military commander, of turning into a dictator and they say that if he is left unchecked, he could become a despot and a mirror image of Mugabe. Khama however has defended his leadership style saying that it is his responsibility to instill discipline and restore order in his party and the country at large.

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Zambia 
President Banda likely to retain power - survey 
Aug 23, 2011 11:42 GMT. CEEMARKETWATCH.

President Rupiah Banda is expected to win the presidential election in September, according to a survey conducted by research and political consultancy group the Management Intelligence Organisation (MIO). According to the survey results, Banda is expected win at least 35% of the vote on September 20, with the opposition candidates expected to win a cumulative 40% of the ballot, while 25% of the registered voters will not turn up to cast their votes. According to the MIO, Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front (PF) is tipped to be Banda’s biggest challenger, with Hakinde Hichilema of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) expected to place third. Look at the provincial breakdown, Banda is expected to win 30% of votes in Lusaka, 40% in the Copperbelt, 90% in Eastern, 80% in North-Western and 80% in the Central Province, highlighting the ongoing strong support in rural areas. The PF is expected to win 65% in the Northern Province, 35% in Lusaka and 50% in the Coppebelt. The MIO noted that while in the past the UPND had recorded victories across Southern Province, the tables appear to be turning in favour of the MMD, with most southerners generally conceding that their home party has little chance this time around, hence the decision to vote MMD. According to research recently released by Business Monitor International (BMI), Banda is also expected to retain power.

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Calendar for the period Aug 24, 2011 till Sep 08, 2011
Full calendar of forthcoming events at http://www.ceemarketwatch.com/calendar.html
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Czech Republic
Date Event Reference date Source Notes
Aug 24, 2011 / 08:00 London time Business cycle survey Aug-2011 CSU  
Aug 26, 2011 T-bills auction   FinMin  
Aug 26, 2011 / 08:00 London time Weekly fuel prices Week 34 CSU  
Aug 31, 2011 / 09:00 London time Bank statistics Jul-2011 CNB  
Aug 31, 2011 / 09:00 London time National monetary survey Jul-2011 CNB  
Sep 01, 2011 PMI Aug-2011 Markit Economics  
Sep 01, 2011 State budget Aug-2011 FinMin  
Sep 02, 2011 T-bills auction   FinMin  
Sep 02, 2011 / 08:00 London time Retail sales Jul-2011 CSU  
Sep 02, 2011 / 08:00 London time Weekly fuel prices Week 35 CSU  
Sep 05, 2011 / 08:00 London time Wages Q2 11 CSU  
Sep 05, 2011 / 09:00 London time Monetary statistics Jul-2011 CNB  
Sep 06, 2011 / 08:00 London time Industry and Construction Jul-2011 CSU  
Sep 06, 2011 / 12:00 London time External trade Jul-2011 CSU  
Sep 07, 2011 T-bonds auction   FinMin  
Sep 07, 2011 / 09:00 London time Balance of payments Q2 11 CNB  
Sep 07, 2011 / 09:00 London time CNB forex reserves Aug-2011 CNB  
Serbia
Date Event Reference date Source Notes
Aug 25, 2011 Wages Jul-2011 Statistical bureau  
Aug 31, 2011 Foreing Trade Jul-2011 Statistical bureau  
Aug 31, 2011 Industrial Output Jul-2011 Statistical bureau  
Aug 31, 2011 Retail sales Jul-2011 Statistical bureau  
Sep 05, 2011 PPI Aug-2011 Statistical bureau  
Sep 08, 2011 NBS Board monetary policy meeting   Central bank  
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Date Event Reference date Source Notes
Aug 25, 2011 Industrial output Jul 11 BiH statistics bureau  
Aug 25, 2011 Industrial output Jul 11 BiH statistics bureau  
Estonia
Date Event Reference date Source Notes
Aug 26, 2011 Banking sector Jul-2011 Central Bank  
Aug 29, 2011 Construction Q2-11 Stat Office  
Aug 30, 2011 Wages Q2-11 Stat Office  
Aug 31, 2011 Industrial production Jul-2011 Stat Office  
Aug 31, 2011 Retail trade Jul-2011 Stat Office  
Sep 05, 2011 Corporate earnings Q2-11 Stat Office  
Sep 07, 2011 CPI inflation Aug-2011 Stat Office  
Sep 08, 2011 BoP - quarterly bulletin Q2-11 Central Bank  
Sep 08, 2011 GDP Q2-11 Stat Office  
Sep 08, 2011 Gross external debt Q2-11 Central Bank  
Israel
Date Event Reference date Source Notes
Aug 24, 2011 Bank credit Jun-2011 BoI  
Aug 24, 2011 Business sector debt Jun-2011 BoI  
Aug 25, 2011 Credit card purchases Jul-2011 Stat office  
Aug 28, 2011 House starts and completions Q2-11 Stat office  
Aug 29, 2011 Interest rate decision Sep-2011 BoI  
Aug 31, 2011 Labor force survey Q2-11 Stat office  
Aug 31, 2011 Quantity demanded of new dwellings Jul-2011 Stat office  
Sep 01, 2011 Inflation expectations Aug-2011 BoI  
Sep 05, 2011 Non-residents' investments Jul-2011 BoI  
Sep 07, 2011 Foreign exchange reserves Aug-2011 BoI  
Sep 08, 2011 Average wage Jun-2011 Stat office  
Tunisia
Date Event Reference date Source Notes
Aug 30, 2011 PPI inflation July INS  
Written by CEEMarketWatch. The report is based on sources, which we believe to be reliable, but no warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information. The views expressed are our best judgement as of the date of issue and are subject to change without notice. Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2011 CEEMarketWatch, all rights reserved.